XG, lets step back a bit
There are some really clever people who like producing predictive models to improve their fpl performance, or they just enjoy the process that entails. Fpl has no rules, you can play any way you want and its clear a lot of hard work goes into these things, fair play.
Equally you can play fpl simply watching games and looking at not one stat, you can even play it not watching any games, remember last year there was a theoretical squad that could have be been picked gw1 and not touched all season, no transfers chips nothing, which would have won FPL. Incredible but true.
These things aren't what I've been tweeting about , albeit a little but cheeky at times.
My issue is the rather strange conclusions being drawn from some stats, xg in particular.
Some posters go so far as to suggest xg guarantees success and is proven to work and other such bizarre claims, it doesn't and hasn't, has a value yes, interesting piece of work yes, but guarantees success? Not in my opinion it doesn't.
Anyway , back to these stange conclusions. I may blog about others but want to pick up on one such phenomena.
We would all agree football is an emotional 3 dimensional game with a lot of factors that affect form, health, well being, manager, confidence, relationships the list is endless. Form in fpl is simply a player scoring points.
When a player hits form, you buy him into your team if he fits your plans and structure, certainly he's one to consoder.
What you would want to do is ride that form and capture those points, what matters is what they are doing on the pitch right?
Well thats my issue with how xg and other stats are being applied. There are many many tweets by managers so wrapped up stats if the player is out performing whatever measure they deem applicable, they become risk averse and suggest caution! WHAT? if you don't get a player in form when do you get him? I've had a reply suggssting you only get him when he's justifying his stats?! Its madness, they don't need to justify anythig, all they need to do us score more fpl poubts than an equally priced player.
Its as if some managers are so engrossed in stats they've lost the power of rational thought, they are so convinced by these things their brains have fried.
Xg has been misinterpreted to such a point its having the opposite effect to what was intended. If a player misses a load of chances he might just be shit, consider that for a minute, or the opposite, some players are so good they will 'out perform ' this stat of yours. The bizarre outome is a risk averse strategy, frozen in fear to buy a player because a stat says he shouldn't have scored this well.
Unfreeze yourself, what matters is what happens on the pitch. To NOT buy a player who is playing well bacause he's not hitting some numbers you believe to be more imporant than ACTUAL goals is analyis gone mad.
Take the red pill. Be balanced, look at the data, but above all else remember all a footballer can do is play well, they don't earn money missing the same shot everyone else did.
Form is subjective, if you think a mathematical model can predict this accurately at best you'll be a billionaire at worst you'll win fpl every year.
In the mean time everyone else outside the Twitter bubble will buy a player playing well whilst you procrastinate whether their output is justified in stats. Whatever that means, I think it means temporary madness tbh.
There are some really clever people who like producing predictive models to improve their fpl performance, or they just enjoy the process that entails. Fpl has no rules, you can play any way you want and its clear a lot of hard work goes into these things, fair play.
Equally you can play fpl simply watching games and looking at not one stat, you can even play it not watching any games, remember last year there was a theoretical squad that could have be been picked gw1 and not touched all season, no transfers chips nothing, which would have won FPL. Incredible but true.
These things aren't what I've been tweeting about , albeit a little but cheeky at times.
My issue is the rather strange conclusions being drawn from some stats, xg in particular.
Some posters go so far as to suggest xg guarantees success and is proven to work and other such bizarre claims, it doesn't and hasn't, has a value yes, interesting piece of work yes, but guarantees success? Not in my opinion it doesn't.
Anyway , back to these stange conclusions. I may blog about others but want to pick up on one such phenomena.
We would all agree football is an emotional 3 dimensional game with a lot of factors that affect form, health, well being, manager, confidence, relationships the list is endless. Form in fpl is simply a player scoring points.
When a player hits form, you buy him into your team if he fits your plans and structure, certainly he's one to consoder.
What you would want to do is ride that form and capture those points, what matters is what they are doing on the pitch right?
Well thats my issue with how xg and other stats are being applied. There are many many tweets by managers so wrapped up stats if the player is out performing whatever measure they deem applicable, they become risk averse and suggest caution! WHAT? if you don't get a player in form when do you get him? I've had a reply suggssting you only get him when he's justifying his stats?! Its madness, they don't need to justify anythig, all they need to do us score more fpl poubts than an equally priced player.
Its as if some managers are so engrossed in stats they've lost the power of rational thought, they are so convinced by these things their brains have fried.
Xg has been misinterpreted to such a point its having the opposite effect to what was intended. If a player misses a load of chances he might just be shit, consider that for a minute, or the opposite, some players are so good they will 'out perform ' this stat of yours. The bizarre outome is a risk averse strategy, frozen in fear to buy a player because a stat says he shouldn't have scored this well.
Unfreeze yourself, what matters is what happens on the pitch. To NOT buy a player who is playing well bacause he's not hitting some numbers you believe to be more imporant than ACTUAL goals is analyis gone mad.
Take the red pill. Be balanced, look at the data, but above all else remember all a footballer can do is play well, they don't earn money missing the same shot everyone else did.
Form is subjective, if you think a mathematical model can predict this accurately at best you'll be a billionaire at worst you'll win fpl every year.
In the mean time everyone else outside the Twitter bubble will buy a player playing well whilst you procrastinate whether their output is justified in stats. Whatever that means, I think it means temporary madness tbh.
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